Angela Merkel will “go to the edge of the precipice” with Theresa May as the European Union prepares to reject any change to the withdrawal agreement in time for a crucial vote in two weeks.
Diplomatic sources said the German chancellor believed that people needed “to look into the abyss before a deal is done at five to midnight — that is how she works”.
The next summit at which European leaders could agree any changes to the agreement or an extension to the negotiating period to avoid no deal is on March 21, only eight days before Britain is due to leave the EU.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, ruled out further negotiation and insisted yesterday that there were no plans for an emergency summit to hold talks with Mrs May. “A renegotiation is not on the table. There’s no plans to discuss any changes to the guidelines. Nor is there any pressure to hold [a summit],” he said. “The withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation and is not going to be reopened.”
Brussels sources said the EU would not offer Mrs May any talks on changes to the agreement to meet her deadline of February 14 for MPs to vote on a new deal. Brussels negotiators will offer changes to the political declaration on the future relationship, a text that is part of the Brexit deal package alongside the withdrawal agreement but which is not legally binding.
European countries would not play “games” or abandon Ireland or the backstop to prevent a no-deal British departure, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, warned yesterday.
“The agreement will not be renegotiated. I get the impression some hope the other 26 will abandon the backstop and Ireland, but this is not a game,” he told MEPs. “It goes to the heart of what being a member of the EU means. Ireland’s border is Europe’s border and it’s our union’s priority.”
The prime minister is regarded in Brussels as having a weak hand and negotiators believe that the majority of MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit will become the key factor in the EU’s favour during the coming days.
Michel Barnier, the union’s lead Brexit negotiator, expressed dismay that Mrs May was seeking change to the deal that she agreed at a Brussels summit two months ago. “She distanced herself from the agreement she herself had negotiated,” he said. “This agreement will not be renegotiated. We need this backstop as it is. Rejecting the backstop as it stands today boils down to rejecting the solution as we found it with the British.”
He added: “When I hear some people who were even part and parcel of the negotiations saying what they’re saying it’s tough. I find it hard to accept this blame game they’re trying to play against us.”
The EU views an extension to the Article 50 exit process of between three months and a year as “a certainty” but will not rush to grant a delay to scheduled exit day even if MPs vote to instruct the prime minister to request one next month.
The EU will set conditions on any extension, which must be agreed unanimously by all 27 European leaders who could refuse the request if they feel MPs have not moved to accept the withdrawal agreement or any new assurances that might offered to Mrs May.
Today the European Commission will step up no-deal planning as part of its offensive to put pressure on the prime minister and heighten concern in parliament that Britain could crash out. In the event of a no deal, the EU will offer to keep European funding flowing to researchers, universities, scientists, famers and regional projects if Britain agrees to pay its budget contributions for this year.
The commission’s move signals that Brussels would demand that Britain pay budget contributions, of about €20 billion, for this year and next even without the withdrawal agreement.
“Even if UK leaves without a deal there will need to be a financial settlement,” a commission official said.
EU governments will refuse to enter trade talks after a no-deal Brexit unless Britain honours budget commitments made as part of a seven year spending deal in 2013.
Britain will be given a deadline of April 18 to agree to this year’s budget payments and the commission does not expect to have to take legal action in the International Court of Justice to recover cash the EU claims it is owed.
“If we want to remain friends then going to court is not a good idea,” a commission official said.
